Shadow Inventory SURGE (15 Million VACANT HOUSES)

When will the 2022 Housing Bubble finally Crash? When some of the 15 Million Vacant Homes (aka Shadow Inventory) across the US Housing Market gets released.

The US Housing Market is in a massive Bubble in 2022. One reason is because is there are a significant number of vacant units being held from the Market. This Shadow Inventory is over 15 Million according to data from the US Census Bureau.

The state with the most vacant homes is Florida, with over 820k (9% of its Housing Units). Not surprisingly, Florida’s Real Estate Market is also in one of the largest Bubbles, with record high home price growth. Especially across metros like Miami, Naples, Cape Coral, and Sarasota.

Amazingly – over 25% of the Housing Units in Naples are vacant. While there are over 200k in Miami. If a small share list for sale, then the Florida Housing Market could crash.

Another issue for Florida – well as high shadow inventory Housing Markets in Idaho, Montana, and Oregon – is that 2nd/3rd home demand has plummeted over the last 3 Months according to new data from Redfin.

Higher Mortgage Rates, to go along with a crashing Stock Market, means that wealthy people feel less wealthy in 2022. And that is translating to fewer buyers for 2nd/3rd homes in markets with significant shadow inventory.

Homebuyers and real estate investors in 2022 should be careful buying anywhere with a large share of vacant homes. That’s an indication that the demand in the market is discretionary and the data from Redfin shows it’s already slowing significantly.

US Census Bureau Data: https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf

Redfin 2nd Homebuyer Data:

Demand For Second Homes Is Way Down From Last Year’s Boom

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