The 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate is now up to 4.4%, the highest level in nearly three years thank to record level of inflation. Higher mortgage rates and inflation will likely CRASH certain Housing Markets in America over the next year, particularly high-priced markets on the West Coast.
Using a metric called Inflation-Adjusted Mortgage Payments, I have identified the following Housing Markets as being in a high risk of a BUBBLE.
AUSTIN, TX: Austin’s Real Estate Market is in a large Bubble, with inflation-adjusted mortgage payments up by over 30% since 2002.
SEATTLE, WA: Inflation-adjusted payments in Seattle are up by over 35% from 2002 and now nearing the previous highs established in 2007 before a big crash. Be careful buying in Seattle’s Housing Market.
TAMPA, FL: Tampa’s Housing Market is getting very Bubbly, with the cost of owning a home up by 25% over the last two decades. With that said – things are still much cheaper in Tampa’s Real Estate Market today compared to 2007.
DALLAS, TX: Dallas’ Housing Market was always affordable. But no longer. Home prices have skyrocketed and surging mortgage rates mean Dallas Real Estate could be in a BIG HOUSING BUBBLE.
BOISE, ID: Arguably the biggest Housing Bubble in America. Boise’s inflation-adjusted payments are up by over 45% since 2002 and well above the previous peak in the mid-2000s.
The same metric is showing the following markets as a lower risk of a Bubble:
CHICAGO, IL: It’s nearly 33% cheaper to buy and pay for a home across Chicago today compared to 20 years ago. That’s because the growth in inflation has outstripped the growth of local home prices.
NEW YORK, NY: the New York Metro, which includes Long Island, Westchester, and Northern New Jersey, could be in for a 2022 Correction. But I believe a Housing Crash is unlikely due to mortgage payments being cheaper today than 20 years ago after adjusting for inflation.
MIAMI, FL: Miami’s Housing Market is getting frothy. But things are much more fundamentally supported across Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach Real Estate today than 2007. A correction could be in order, but another 50% CRASH seems unlikely.
Mortgage Rate Data: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed
Zillow Home Value Data: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
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