Home prices are the highest they have ever been. Home buyers and real estate investors are getting priced out of the market. Markets throughout America’s south – such as Austin, Nashville, Raleigh, and Phoenix – are getting extremely expensive. Will they end up in a Housing Crash?
If you ask a realtor or local real estate investor in these markets they will likely say: “No Housing Crash for these cities! The price increases in Austin and Phoenix are justified because there are so many people moving there!”
But rarely will that realtor or investor tell you, specifically, how many people are moving to the city. And how that movement compares to previous historical levels. Luckily, we have the US Census Bureau which tracks that data for us.
And according to their data the number of people moving to the South – into states such as Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada – is largely the same today was it was two or three decades ago. Meanwhile, the number of people feeling the Northeast and Pacific (aka “New York and California Exodus”) is also largely the same.
While migration levels into the Sun Belt are similar to historical norms, home price appreciation is anything but. Austin, TX has YoY home price growth of +42% through July 2021 compared to historical averages closer to +4%. Raleigh, NC is at +20% compared to a historical nom of +3%. Markets like Las Vegas and Phoenix, which already have a large Bubble and Housing Crash in their history, are also getting back to frothy levels.
But why are these Sun Belt Growth markets experiencing so much appreciation if migration levels are largely the same as they have always been?
Could it be that these markets are in a speculative Housing Bubble that will result in a Housing Crash? Most Realtors will say “No Bubble! The migration growth is amazing and supports the price!” Just make sure to ask them “How much growth, specifically?”
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0:00 You’re Being Lied to!
0:59 Where are Americans Moving?
3:11 Migration Data from…WHEN?
4:26 Moving South since the 1990s
5:40 30 Years of Migration: South v. Northeast
8:03 US Census Bureau Data
9:19 Austin / Raleigh Home Price BUBBLE
12:07 Phoenix / Vegas Historical Precedent
14:08 “History Doesn’t Repeat Itself. It Rhymes.”
15:59 What about Supply / New Construction?
19:15 Moneyball Era for Real Estate
21:56 Newsletter Out Now! Become a Member!
#HousingCrash #HousingMarket2021 #HousingBubble